塔里木盆地年平均气温的分形特征研究  

Fractal characteristics of annual mean temperature of the Tarim Basin

作　　者：董山[1] 徐建华[1] 陈亚宁[2] 李卫红[2] 戴晓燕[1] 

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学教育部地理信息科学重点实验室,上海200062 [2]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830011

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2009年第1期17-22,共6页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：中国科学院知识创新二期项目(KZCX2-XB2-03);中国科学院创新工程重要方向(KZCX2-YW-127);上海重点学科建设项目(B410:人文地理学)联合资助

摘　　要：根据分形理论、相空间嵌入定理、Grassberger和Procaccia提出的计算分维数的方法，对塔里木盆地22个气象台站50年（1956—2005）的年平均气温时间序列数据进行分析，计算其分维数，进一步应用普通克立格法、采用变异函数的指数模型对分维数进行了空间插值。研究结果表明，（1）该区域年平均气温的分维数为2．22～2．64，它提供了该区域气候吸引子的自相似结构的基本信息，表明模拟该区域气候系统至少需要3个独立变量，（2）分形维数的空间分布与地形地理位置密切相关，在地形地势复杂的地方及有地表径流的地方分维数的值较高，譬如在盆地边缘砾石带、盆地边缘绿洲带、盆地东部的罗布泊湖盆区分形维数均较高，约为2．55～2．57，表明这些地方气候变化较为复杂，沙漠腹地分形维数较低，约为2．51～2．55，气候系统的复杂性相对较低。This paper＇ analysis is based on the fractal theory, the phase space reconstruction theory and the geostatistical theory. Using the method estimating the fractal dimensions given by Grassberger and Procaccia and the Ordinary Kriging interpolation method, the time series are analyzed of annual mean temperature at 22 meteorological stations in the Tarim Basin from 1950 to 1997 to reveal the fractal characteristics of temperature and the climate of the Tarim Basin. The results of the fractal analysis show that the fractal dimensions of the annual mean temperature of the Tarim Basin are 2.22 - 2.64, which provide the primary information for the description of self-similar properties of the climate tractor and indicate that there should be at least 3 independent variables for describing this climate system. The values of fractal dimensions indicate the complexity of the system. A system with a large fractal dimension is more complex than that with small fractal dimension. The spatial distribution of the fractal dimensions of annual mean temperature is analyzed, using the Ordinary Kriging interpolation method and the exponential model of Variograms. The result shows that the fractal dimensions spatial distribution correlates closely to the geographical position and the terrain. The fractal dimensions are larger, ranging 2.55 - 2.57, in regions with complex terrain and surface runoff, such as the gravel belts and the oasis at the Tarim Basin edge and the Lop Nor zone in the east of the basin. These larger fractal dimensions indicate that the climate change in these regions is more complex than that in other parts of the basin. At the same time, the fractal dimensions are smaller in the hinterland of the Takli- makan Desert, ranging 2.51 - 2.55, which indicate that the climate change in these regions is relatively less complex.

关 键 词：塔里木盆地 分形 相空间重构 普通克立格 

分 类 号：P423.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]