合肥城市发展对热岛强度的影响  

INFLUENCE OF URBANIZATION ON THE URBAN THERMAL ISLAND IN HEFEI

作　　者：刘玲[1] 吴坤悌[1] 黄光瑞[1] 陈庭甫[1] 张庆国[2] 

机构地区：[1]海南省气象科学研究所,海南海口570203 [2]安徽农业大学理学院,安徽合肥230036

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2008年第A01期88-93,共6页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：安徽省自然科学基金项目(03044503):合肥城市气候资源分析及其在景观生态系统优化中的应用

摘　　要：城市热岛强度与城市发展关系密切。以合肥市为研究对象,利用趋势分析、主成分分析等方法系统分析了合肥城市热岛变化及与城市发展的关系,结果表明:合肥城市热岛显著,年际变化总体呈上升趋势,平均值为0.58℃,变化速率为0.194℃/10 a;季节变化表现为冬季最强,夏季最弱,春、秋介于两者之间,热岛强度增长速率大小顺序依次是:冬季>秋季>春季>夏季,分别为0.1、0.081、0.068和0.049℃/10 a;同时选出9个城市发展指标,计算得出合肥城市发展的综合指标LU,并在此基础上建立合肥城市发展与城市热岛强度之间的最佳回归模型为:y=0.563-0.027x+0.001x2-1.1E-05x3(相关系数R=0.8405,F=22.387)。Urban thermal island has a close relationship with the level of urbanization. By using the method of principal component analysis and trend analysis, the relationship between thermal island and urban development was studied. The results showed that：Thermal island in Hefei was significant,and being on the rise. The mean annual thermal island was 0.58℃ ,the rate of change was 0. 194℃/10 a. Seasonal variation showed that thermal island was the strongest in winter, and weakest in summer. The growth rate of urban thermal island were in the order of winter〉 autumn〉 spring〉 summer,and the rate was 0. 1℃/10 a. , 0. 081℃/10 a. ,0. 068℃/10 a and 0. 049℃/10 a, respectively. At the same time,nine urban development indicators were selected, Hefei comprehensive development indicators was calculated,and the best regression model between urban thermal island and urban development was established,namely：y=0. 563-0. 027x＋ 0. 001x^-1.1E-05x^3（R=0. 840 5,F=22. 387）.

关 键 词：城市发展 城市热岛 主成分分析 

分 类 号：X16[环境科学与工程—环境科学] O212.4[理学—概率论与数理统计]