论中国宏观经济走势:基于产出缺口与AD-AS模型的分析  

Macroeconomic Trend of China:Based on Analysis of Output Gap and AD-AS Model

作　　者：谢太峰[1] 王子博[1] 

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学金融学院,北京100070

出　　处：《金融理论与实践》2009年第1期43-48,共6页Financial Theory and Practice

摘　　要：美国爆发的次贷危机引发全球金融海啸,金融危机正在向实体经济传导,中国经济发展面临的不确定因素明显增多,分析中国宏观经济走势以及时调整政策具有重要的现实意义。本文构建状态空间模型运用Kalman滤波估算我国潜在产出与产出缺口,进而测算我国长期经济增长趋势、可接受的产出缺口区间与经济增长区间,并在AD-AS模型的框架下从理论上分析影响短期经济波动的关键因素以及中国宏观经济走势,最后结合实证与理论分析提出相应的政策建议。Global financial tsunami is caused by American Sub-prime crises and the financial crises are transmitting to industrial economics, so Chinese economy is facing more and more uncertain factors and it＇s of great importance to analyze macroeconomic trend of China and to adjust policies. We construct special model by adopting Kalman filter to estimate the potential output and output gap of China, then we forecast the long-term trend of economic growth in China, acceptable interval of output gap and economic growth. Furthermore, we analyze the key factors that influence short-term economic fluctuations in the framework of AD-AS model theoretically, and give relevant suggestions using empirical and theoretic analysis.

关 键 词：产出缺口 经济增长 KALMAN滤波 AD—AS模型 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]