基于时间序列的农业非点源污染产出预测研究  

Forecast of agricultural non-point source pollution output based on time series model

作　　者：朱伟峰 朱丽娟 马永胜[3] 

机构地区：[1]黑龙江省农田水利管理总站,哈尔滨150090 [2]林甸县涝区管理站,黑龙江林甸166300 [3]东北农业大学水利与建筑学院,哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《东北农业大学学报》2008年第12期42-46,共5页Journal of Northeast Agricultural University

基　　金：黑龙江省教育厅科学技术研究项目(10541028)

摘　　要：选取三江平原蛤蟆通河流域作为研究区,利用SWAT模型农业非点源污染模拟结果,建立了农业非点源污染的季节性ARIMA模型,对未来3年农业非点源污染进行了预测,为非点源污染防治提供一定的理论依据。This paper took Sanjiang Plain Hamatong River Basin as a study area, according to the simulation results of agricultural non-point pollution calculated by SWAT model, established a seasonal ARIMA model of agricultural non-point source pollution, applied the model to forecast the agricultural non-point pollution for the next 3 years, and provided a method for prevention and controlling the non-point source pollution.

关 键 词：时间序列 ARIMA模型 农业非点源污染 预测 

分 类 号：S273[农业科学—农业水土工程]