长江三角洲地区城市规模分布的时空演变特征  

Spatio-temporal dynamics of city-size distribution in Yangtze River Delta

作　　者：蒲英霞[1] 马荣华[2] 马晓冬[3] 顾朝林[4] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,南京210093 [2]中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,南京210008 [3]徐州师范大学资源与环境学院,徐州221009 [4]清华大学建筑学院城市规划系,北京100084

出　　处：《地理研究》2009年第1期161-172,共12页Geographical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(40601074);国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(40435013)

摘　　要：从不同的角度对改革开放以来长江三角洲地区城市规模分布的演变进行了较为系统的研究。结果表明:(1)长三角城市体系经历了首位型-位次型-首位型分布模式,城市首位度降低,并不能排除城市规模呈现首位型分布;(2)就整个研究期间而言,长三角城市体系呈现较弱的收敛增长态势;(3)规模相对较大的城市,其维持自身状态的可能性较大。从长期发展趋势来看,长江三角洲地区将有高达78%的城市的人口规模低于同期平均水平,人口规模超过平均水平2倍以上的大城市数量将有所减少;(4)长三角城市体系在总体上并没有呈现均匀的空间分布格局,空间极化现象一直比较明显。随着改革进程的加快,在苏南、环杭州湾一带地区出现的空间集聚现象不断加强,这与苏北、浙南地区空间分布格局的相对平静形成了鲜明对比。Urban is the engine of economic growth.With the rapid development of urbanization process across the world,the dynamics of city-size distribution has been a hot topic.The heat debates centering on the optimal city size have exerted impacts on the urbanization courses in China.From several different perspectives,this paper investigates the spatio-temporal dynamics of city-size distribution in the Yangtze River Delta during the period 1984-2002.Empirical results show that the evolution of urban system in the Yangtze River Delta has undergone primate,rank-size and primate distribution patterns.The primacy of Shanghai was the lowest in 2002,but the whole pattern of urban system in the Yangtze River Delta shifted to primate distribution pattern again,which to a large extent reflects the corresponding adjustments of urbanization guidelines in China in the 21st century.In term of the relationship between city size and city growth,the whole urban system takes the form of convergent growth,which means the initial smaller cities grow faster than larger cities.However,the difference in city growth is not significant.From the long-term tendency,the number of cities over two times of the average size will greatly decrease to about 6%,and middle-sized cities will dominate the urban systems in the future.Generally speaking,it will take about 16 years for a non-city area to develop into a city with half of the average size.On the whole,the change of city-size distribution in the Yangtze River Delta is becoming much even,but the tendency of spatial polarization and concentration is not the case.The spatial agglomeration in southern Jiangsu and Hangzhou Bay rim continues to be strengthened with the deepening of the policy opening to the outside world,which contrasts with the relative quiescence in northern Jiangsu and southern Zhejiang.

关 键 词：城市规模分布 位序-规模法则 马尔可夫链 空间自相关 长江三角洲 

分 类 号：F299.27[经济管理—国民经济] F224