登陆热带气旋时间间隔非规则性的初步研究  

The preliminary study of Non-regularity of tropical cyclone landing time intervals

作　　者：段晶晶[1] 罗哲贤[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,210044

出　　处：《中国科技信息》2009年第4期19-21,共3页China Science and Technology Information

基　　金：国家自然科学基金40775038。

摘　　要：利用1950～2005年《台风年鉴》《热带气旋年鉴》所给出的有关资料,对近56年来登陆我国热带气旋时间间隔的非规则性做了初步研究。先统计了每年热带气旋之间的时间间隔,得到56个时间间隔序列,然后做回归方程求趋势,将原序列减去趋势项,得到的剩余序列再做方差分析。结果表明每年的时间间隔序列存在一定的趋势,有的年份还存在周期。之后计算了时间间隔序列的关联维数,并建立自回归模型,采用选点法,对时间间隔序列进行预报及检验。This article preliminarily studied the time interval sequence＇s non-regularity of tropical cyclone which landing China nearly 56 years,using the relevant data of ＂Yearbook＂.After statistics on the time interval of tropical cyclones in every year,get 56 time interval sequences,then a trend got by the regression equation will be reduced by the original sequence,the rest of the sequence will be done analysis of variance.The result shows that there is certain trend on the time interval sequence in every year,even a cycle exists in some years,with computing the correlation dimension of the time interval sequence.establishing regression model by the election law,the time interval sequence will be forecasted and tested.

关 键 词：热带气旋 方差分析 自回归模型 趋势系数 关联维数 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]