河道洪水概率预报方法研究  

The Research of River Flood Probabilistic Forecasting

作　　者：鄢来标[1] 康玲[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学水电与数字化工程学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《水力发电》2008年第12期40-41,共2页Water Power

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目资助(2006BAB04A09)

摘　　要：河道洪水预报对防洪减灾和水资源的综合利用有着重要的现实意义。考虑到水文预报不确定性的水文风险,为了更科学地对河道洪水进行预测,提出将贝叶斯方法的思路引入到河道洪水的概率预报中,计算预报流量的概率密度分布和置信区间,获得河道洪水的概率预报结果,为防洪决策提供更丰富的信息。River flood forecasting is very important for the reduction of disasters and the synthesis use of water resource. This paper considers the uncertainty of the hydrology forecasting, the Bayesian prohabilistic forecasting and the BP ANN are combined for forecasting the fiver flood. The method is applied to Qingjiang River. The probability density distribution of discharge to be estimated, the result show that the flood probabilistie forecasting model provides more powerful information for flood management.

关 键 词：洪水概率预报 BP神经网络 贝叶斯方法 

分 类 号：P338.1[天文地球—水文科学]