基于数据预处理GM(1,1)模型的深圳港集装箱吞吐量预测  

Container throughput forecast for Shenzhen Port based on GM(1,1) model

作　　者：刘雷丽[1] 蒋惠园[1] 张栓柱[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学交通学院,湖北武汉430063

出　　处：《水运工程》2009年第2期83-86,共4页Port & Waterway Engineering

摘　　要：根据深圳港历年集装箱吞吐量数据,采用原灰色模型和幂函数-指数函数对初始数据进行预处理的改进模型分别对深圳港集装箱吞吐量进行预测,经检验比较,进行数据预处理后的模型比原模型预测精度高。选用改进模型对深圳港2008—2010年集装箱吞吐量进行预测,得到未来深圳港集装箱吞吐量将继续增加、但增幅会减缓的结论。Based on the container throughput data of Shenzhen Port, this paper uses the original grey model and improved model to forecast the container throughput. In the improved grey model, the data is processed with power function and exponential function in advance. The forecast accuracy is much higher in the improved model compared with the original. So this paper uses the improved grey model to forecast the container throughput in Shenzhen Port from 2008 to 2010 and reaches the conclusion that the container throughput in Shenzhen Port will continue to increase, but the growth rate will slow down.

关 键 词：灰色系统 GM(1 1)模型 幂函数-指数函数 集装箱吞吐量 

分 类 号：U652.14[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]