城市灾害风险系统性评价  

Systematic evaluation on urban disaster risks

作　　者：袁永博[1] 张明媛[1] 周晶[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学土木水利学院,辽宁大连116085

出　　处：《辽宁工程技术大学学报（自然科学版）》2009年第1期66-69,共4页Journal of Liaoning Technical University (Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50378012);国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(50439010)

摘　　要：从系统角度进行城市灾害风险评价是对城市灾害风险研究内容的有益补充。分析了脆性风险熵在城市灾害系统风险分析中的可行性,从城市灾害危险性和易损性两方面确定了城市灾害系统中脆性因子以及脆性事件后果评价因素。鉴于小样本灾害事件统计概率的不准确性,用突变级数法计算的脆性因子突变概率代替脆性风险熵计算中的统计概率,模糊数代替脆性事件结果价值。基于熵原理计算的脆性风险熵是脆性因子突变概率与脆性事件结果价值的综合测度,这也正是城市灾害风险的综合测度。The evaluation on urban disaster risks from system angle is very useful in its research. The feasibility of method of brittleness risk entropy used in urban disaster system risk analysis is first discussed, and the factors of brittleness and brittle events＇ results are then confirmed from both aspects of hazards and vulnerability. Due to the inveracity of statistical probability with little sample of disasters, the mutation progression was used to calculate the probability instead of the statistical probability and fuzzy degree instead of brittle events＇ value. The brittleness risk entropy based on entropy theory is the integrated estimation of mutation probability of brittle factors and value of brittle events＇ results as well as the urban disasters risk.

关 键 词：城市灾害 风险 脆性 熵 

分 类 号：N949[自然科学总论—系统科学] X4[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]