灾害系统模拟技术和方法述评  

Simulation Technologies and Methods for Disaster System:A Review

作　　者：刘健利[1] 温家洪[1] 尹占娥[1] 曹羽[1] 王飞[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海师范大学地理系,上海200234

出　　处：《灾害学》2009年第1期106-111,共6页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(40730526);国家自然科学基金项目(40571006);上海师范大学重点培育学科项目资助(DZL801)

摘　　要：灾害模拟不仅可以分析各种灾害的动态演变规律,帮助人们识别灾害风险的高低和影响程度,为制定各种防灾减灾措施提供帮助;还可以协助应急预案的制定和相关人员的应急培训。评述了当前灾害系统和灾害应急响应模拟中使用的主要技术和方法,CA方法主要用于模拟各种致灾因子,揭示山崩、火灾等演变规律;MAS主要用于模拟人类系统,反映人们在灾害发生时的认知和反应过程;DES适合各种灾害的突发情景处理,为制定应急预案提供背景和依据;高层次架构和网格平台为大型分布式模拟和利用公共网络提供了可能。未来的灾害模拟将综合各种技术和方法,为综合灾害风险管理提供帮助。Disaster simulation can be used to analyze the dynamic evolution of many kinds of disasters, help people identify the risk and impact of disaster, develop a variety of disaster prevention and mitigation measures and assist people in contingency plans for emergency response and related personnel training. This paper narrates and commentates the＇ major technologies and methodologies which are used in the simulation of the current disaster system and the disaster emergency response. Cellular Automata is mainly used to simulate hazard system and help people to reveal the evolution mechanism of landslides and fires etc. bIAS system is mainly used to simulate the Human system and reflect people＇s awareness and reaction when disasters occur. DES is used to deal with the unexpected disaster scenarios and provide background and suggestions for the development of contingency plans. HLA and Grid Platform are used to conduct large - scale distributed simulation and make use of public networks possible. The future study of disaster simulation will focus on integration of all kinds of technologies and methods for the integrated disaster management.

关 键 词：灾害系统 模拟技术 模拟方法 CA MAS DES 网络平台 

分 类 号：X4[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]