ALMANAC模型对黄土高原玉米、谷子和糜子产量的模拟  

Simulation of corn,foxtail millet and pearl millet yields using ALMANAC model in the Loess Plateau

作　　者：刘刚[1] 谢云[1] 吴瑞俊[2] 高晓飞[1] 章文波[1] 

机构地区：[1]地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院,北京100875 [2]中科院水利部水土保持研究所,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《干旱地区农业研究》2009年第1期78-83,共6页Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划课题(2006BAD09B05)“水土流失动态监测与评价关键技术”;国家自然科学基金项目(40671111)

摘　　要：用ALMANAC作物模型对黄土高原安塞县大南沟小流域2000~2004年玉米、谷子和糜子的产量进行模拟。结果显示,ALMANAC模型能够很好地模拟该地区的粮食产量,模拟值与实测值回归方程的决定系数大于0.72,回归方程接近1∶1线。玉米、谷子和糜子模拟产量与实测产量之间的平均相对误差分别为-2.29%、-2.32%和8.34%,模拟产量与实测产量之间的标准化均方根差分别为15.7%、11.5%和15.8%。梯田、阴坡和阳坡之间的模拟误差有所差异,玉米梯田产量的模拟值比实测值偏高,阴坡和阳坡产量的模拟值偏低;谷子梯田和阴坡产量的模拟值偏低,阳坡产量的模拟值偏高;糜子梯田和阳坡产量的模拟值偏高。梯田模拟值与实测值之间的一致性较好,其次为阴坡,再次为阳坡。Crop models are helpful in the decision-making process. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the ALMANAC crop model on farm level in a small watershed, Danangou, in the Loess Plateau. The simulated crops were corn, foxtail millet and pearl millet during 2000 and 2004. The results showed that the ALMANAC crop model could simulate well the yields of three kinds of crops. Values for coefficient of determination （R2） between measured and simulated yields were more than 0.72. The relative errors of measured yields and simulated yields of corn, foxtail millet and pearl millet in five years were - 2.29 %, - 2.32 % and 8.34 %. The normal mean root square deviation between measured and simulated yields of corn, foxtail millet and pearl millet were 15.7%, 11.5% and 15.8%. The simulated errors of three kinds of crops were different in terraces, northern slopes and southern slopes. The mean of simulated yields of corn was above measured yields in terraces, but below in northern or southern slopes. The mean of simulated values of foxtail millet was below measured yields, but above in southern slopes. The mean of simulated values of pearl millet was abov.e measured yields. The standard deviation of relative errors showed that the terraces had the smallest difference between the simulated and measured yields, the second were northern slopes, and the third were southern slopes.

关 键 词：作物生长模型 黄土高原 ALMANAC 玉米 谷子 糜子 

分 类 号：S516[农业科学—作物学] S515