不确定需求条件下的交通平衡问题分析方法研究  

Analysis Method of Traffic Equilibrium Problem under Uncertain Demand

作　　者：潘艳荣[1] 邓卫[1] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学交通学院,江苏南京210096

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2009年第3期111-115,共5页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

基　　金："十一五"国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2006BAJ18B03)

摘　　要：对不确定需求条件下交通网络平衡问题的分析方法进行了研究。针对不同的需求情形,分别提出了求解交通平衡模型的基于需求点逼近的点估计法和基于模型的表达式分析法。首先给出了点估计法求解交通网络平衡问题的过程,研究了点估计法的局限性;然后,提出了求解交通网络平衡模型的表达式分析法,即从模型表达式出发,在需求分布为已知的条件下计算模型的解,包括模拟法、公式推导法和情形概率法,并以用户平衡模型求解为例,分别研究了各种方法具体的适用范围和求解过程。最后通过实例,对各种分析方法进行了对比分析。The analysis method of traffic equilibrium problem was studied considering uncertain demand. Based on different demand cases, a single point estimation method based on demand approximation and an analytical expression method based on traffic equilibrium model were put forward. First, calculating procedure of a single point estimation based on demand matrix was present, and the shortage was studied. Then an analytical expression was established, including random simulation method, formula deduction method and scenario probability method. Based on analytical expression, the solution was found under condition of known demand distribution, and the bound and procedure were discussed by user equilibrium model. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the application of these methods.

关 键 词：交通工程 点估计法 表达式分析法 不确定需求 交通平衡问题 

分 类 号：U491.31[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]