次贷危机影响下我国能源生产态势预测  

Chinese Energy Production Situation Forecasting Based on Sub-prime Mortgage Loan Crisis

作　　者：晏文隽[1,2] 郭菊娥[1,2] 龚利[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学管理学院,陕西西安710049 [2]西安交通大学中科预测研究基地,陕西西安710049

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2009年第2期7-12,共6页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(批准号:70473072;70773091)

摘　　要：基于能源生产总量增长率经验模态分解提取的特征因素,揭示了金融危机、能源政策、经济周期和能源生产自身发展规律对能源生产总量增长率演进特征的影响和作用机理。依据1997年亚洲金融危机对我国能源生产总量增长率影响的实际情况,从金融危机和能源政策层面,对1997年亚洲金融危机与2007年美国次贷危机背景下,我国能源生产发展态势进行了翔实的对比分析,得出2007年金融危机会加剧我国已经下滑的能源生产总量增长率趋势,但相应出台的能源政策对能源生产发展的影响时效长、作用力大,在一定程度上能熨平金融危机对能源生产发展带来的不利影响,最后给出2008年至2010年我国能源生产总量增长率小幅调整,但能源生产总量仍缓慢增长的发展态势预测。By the trse of the empirical mode decomposing, the paper reveals impact and impact mechanism of financial crisis, energy resources policy, business cycle and self development rule of energy resources production to growth of the energy resources production. From the layers of financial crisis and energy policy, and on the basis of Asian financial crisis in 1997 and sub-prime mortgage loan crisis in 2007, the paper analyzes energy production lrend, and draws conclusion that financial crisis in 2007 will accelerate the reduction of China＇ s energy production. Implementing relative energy policies that play effective and powerful roles can relief the negative influences brought by financial crisis to energy production in some degree. The paper finally predicts that from 2008 to 2010, China＇ s energy production growth rate will be regulated slightly, but the energy production still be in slow growth.

关 键 词：亚洲金融危机 美国次贷危机 经验模态分解 能源政策 预测 

分 类 号：F201[经济管理—国民经济]