-自然灾害对江西食物生产的影响  

Impact of natural disasters on food production in Jiangxi Province

作　　者：吕爱清[1,2] 卞新民[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学农学院,江苏南京210095 [2]宜春学院农学院,四川宜春336000

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2009年第1期74-78,共5页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家“十五”重点科技攻关计划课题(2001BA508B-15);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目成果(波动、效率与区域食物安全05JA790069);江西省“十五”社科规划项目(05yj25)

摘　　要：江西食物生产要素驱动因子分析表明,化肥用量、灌溉面积、机械动力和农村用电是食物生产的正向强驱动因子,劳动力、种植面积是食物生产的正向次强驱动因子,成灾面积是食物生产的负向次强驱动因子。1978-2003年江西食物生产总量与食物生产要素保障度呈现高度正相关(r=0.885),这表明江西食物生产总量受生产要素投入驱动,2000-2003年食物生产要素保障度下降是导致食物总量下降的主要原因。江西自然灾害因子分析表明,洪涝灾害面积、低温灾害面积、洪涝绝收面积和低温绝收面积是导致自然灾害的强驱动因子,干旱灾害面积、干旱绝收面积、风雹灾害面积和风雹绝收面积是导致自然灾害的次强驱动因子。In this paper seven driving factors were selected for flood production in Jiangxi Province from 1978 to 2003. The driving factor analysis shows that the consumption of chemical fertilizers, irrigation area, power of agricultural machinery and electricity consumed in rural area are the positive major strong driving factors for food production, the labor force and sown area are the positive minor strong driving factors, and the disastersuffering area is the negative minor driving factor of food production. Significantly positive correlation （ r = 0. 885） exists between total food production and the guarantee degree of food production factors in Jiangxi from 1978 to 2003 and it indicates that Jiangxi total food production is also affected by input of food production factors and the decrease of total food production in Jingxi from 2000 to 2003 is mainly caused by a downward guarantee degree of food production factors. The analysis of the nature disasters in Jiangxi indicates that the area of flood and low temperature, the area with zero hervest due to flood and low temperature are the major strong drive factors, and the disaster area of drought and wind-hail and the area with zero harvest due to drought and wind-hail are minor strong driving factors.

关 键 词：食物生产 生产要素 自然灾害 因子分析 驱动因子 江西省 

分 类 号：X4[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] F323.21[经济管理—产业经济]