基于LEAP的城市居住区能值评价与复合情景分析  

LEAP based comprehensive scenario analysis of emergy evaluation on urban residential area

作　　者：李栋[1,2] 王如松[1] 周传斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院生态环境研究中心城市与区域生态国家重点实验室,北京100085 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049

出　　处：《中国科学院研究生院学报》2009年第1期72-82,共11页Journal of the Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70433001);中国科学院知识创新工程重点方向项目(KZCX2-YW-324)资助

摘　　要：中国城市化正呈现快速发展的态势,但支撑和驱动这种态势是资源的大量消耗.由于上游产品工艺相对落后、加工效率较低、下游消费格局有待改善等原因,使得当前中国城市发展中的能源环境的可持续性面临巨大挑战.以城市居住区为研究案例,结合LEAP模拟平台,对小区的能源和原材料消耗终端进行了自底向上的系统建模,并结合能值评价指标及多情景的复合分析评估了小区的生态压力、服务及整体可持续性水平,并对常规发展趋势和当前可行的改进措施进行了定量化研究与比较.结果表明,未来常规情景下案例社区的能值可持续性将大幅度下降,应用改进措施在一定程度上能缓解恶化情况,其中提高终端设备效率的技术方案效果较好.但彻底提升城市居住区的可持续性还有待进一步的研究与探讨.The current rapid trend of urbanization is supported by the huge amount of resources consuming. Due to the lagged manufacturing technology, lower efficiency and unbefitting consumption pattern, etc, there is a big challenge of energy-environmental sustainable development in the cities in China. By constructing a bottom-up model and multi-scenario analysis on the urban residential areas, this article employs emergy evaluation as indicator methodology to estimate the depleting processes of energy and raw materials on the LEAP platform. The Business as Usual （BaU） and improvement scenarios are comprised and judged quantitatively. The result presents that, the technology scenarios for enhancing the efficiencies of energy-use ends is crucial to the sustainable development path of residential areas in cities. However, an upgrading shift of sustainable urban residential areas is still under studied.

关 键 词：能值评价 情景分析 节能减排 LEAP模拟平台 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]