中国人口预测模型  

A Model to Forecast Population in China

作　　者：曾现洋[1] 朱元明[1] 陈春霞[1] 霍伟娜[1] 

机构地区：[1]聊城大学数学科学学院,山东聊城252059

出　　处：《聊城大学学报（自然科学版）》2008年第4期44-49,共6页Journal of Liaocheng University:Natural Science Edition

摘　　要：针对近年来我国的人口总数仍持续增高,老龄化进程加速从而导致的抚养比不断提高,对社会保障体系和公共服务体系的压力加大,并影响到社会代际关系的和谐,根据高教杯全国大学生数模竞赛给出的数据,建立了一个关于中国人口预测的模型.该模型对未来我国总人口的变化趋势和老龄化结构做出了较好的分析,并对中短期内我国的城、镇、乡人口变化情况进行了比较和分析.利用灰色系统理论中的GM(1,1)模型对我国城、镇、乡人人口、总人口以及老龄化比例进行了中短期的预测,后又利用函数拟合方法对中国总人口和老龄化比例进行长期的预测.使用了Mathematica数学软件、EXCEL表格并辅以灰色系统软件进行计算求解验证,很好地实现了编程和一些数据的处理,得到了较高的准确度,并结合预测出的数据分析了中国未来人口的发展情况,提出了一些相应的控制人口数量,改善老龄化问题,乡村城镇化问题的建议.In this paper,China population issues including gross population steady increasing,aging process quickened, threatening dependency ratio rising, social security system and public service system and impacting on society of harmonious inter-generational relations,were discussed. A model to forecast China＇s population was set up,using the data providing by CUMCM. The model made detailed analysis on the trend of gross population and structures of the aging, analyzed and compared the number of population in cities, towns and rural country in mid-long term. Beside the gross population, forecast populations in cities,towns and rural country in mid-long term with the GM（1,1） model in grey system, and then predicted the aging structure ratio and the gross population,using the function fitting in long term. With the software of Mathematica,excel and grey system,made the calculation and computing for verity, programmed the procedure and the data,and achieved the high accuracy. At last, analyzed the development of China＇s population in the future, and put forward some advices on controlling gross population ,improving aging ratio, and the urbanization.

关 键 词：GM(1 1)模型 拟合函数 MATHEMATICA EXCEL 灰色系统 

分 类 号：O212[理学—概率论与数理统计] O29[理学—数学]