基于可拓物元-马尔科夫模型的省域生态环境质量动态评价与预测——以江西省为例  

Dynamic assessment and forecasting of provincial eco-environmental quality from matter element model and Markov chain—A case study of Jiangxi Province

作　　者：刘耀彬[1,2] 朱淑芬[2] 

机构地区：[1]南昌大学中国中部经济发展研究中心,南昌330047 [2]南昌大学旅游规划与研究中心,南昌330047

出　　处：《中国生态农业学报》2009年第2期364-368,共5页Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(07CJL031);中国博士后基金项目(20060400249);江西省教育厅科技项目(GJJ08014)资助

摘　　要：在构建生态环境质量物元的特征指标体系基础上,基于可拓物元-马尔科夫模型提出了省域生态环境质量动态评价与预测的方法,并以江西省为例进行了应用研究。研究显示：可拓物元模型揭示2000～2005年间江西省生态环境质量整体上转好,但11个地区生态环境质量演化状况存在一定差异;而马尔科夫预测表明,按照现有的治理模式,5～10年后江西省生态环境质量整体上向＂较好＂方向演进。基于可拓物元法基础上的马尔科夫预测方法,可一定程度上对省域生态环境质量进行动态评价和趋势预测,但由于两模型本身假设的限制,在其具体应用中还需改进。By developing a characteristics indicator system of eco-environmental matter elements, this paper advanced an assess- ment and forecasting method of provincial eco-environmental quality based on the matter element model and Markov chain. The system was applied to Jiangxi Province as case study. The results show that eco-environmental quality in Jiangxi Province as simu- lated by matter element model has been, on the overall, improved from 2000 to 2005. The degree of improvement is, however, dif- ferent for the 11 districts in the province. On the other hand, Markov chain forecast shows that the eco-environmental quality seems heading in a better evolutional direction in the next 510 years, provided current eco-environment governance is sustained. The ap- plication effects imply that the assessment and forecast of the models, to a certain extent, reflect actual conditions and development trends of the provincial eco-environmental quality. However, because of limitations in the model assumptions, improvements are needed in application of the model to different regions in different phases of economic development.

关 键 词：生态环境质量 可拓物元模型 马尔科夫模型 评价与预测 江西省 

分 类 号：F290[经济管理—国民经济] X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学]