非正规金融市场:反应性还是自主性?——基于温州民间利率的经验研究  

Informal Financial Market:Reactive or Autonomous——An Empirical Study on Interest Rate of Informal Financial Market in Wenzhou

作　　者：姚耀军[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学金融学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《财经研究》2009年第4期38-48,71,共12页Journal of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(08BJY147)

摘　　要：关于温州非正规金融市场利率的大多数典型事实都可以在"反应性"非正规金融范畴内得到合理的解释。支持温州非正规金融具有"反应性"的有力证据来自于对相关变量进行Granger因果关系检验及其脉冲响应分析。这些实证分析表明,正规金融对中小企业的信贷扩张将深刻改变非正规金融市场资金价格的短期走势。然而协整分析表明,在非正规金融市场利率与中小企业信贷水平之间并不存在一种长期的均衡关系。一个整合的分析框架应该被应用于理解温州非正规金融。在该框架中,非正规金融的"反应性"与"自主性"是互为补充的。The reactive character of informal finance can provide an adequate explanation of the majority typical facts in Wenzhou＇s informal financial market. The fact that Wenzhou＇s informal financial market is featured by reactiveness is supported by related Granger causality test and impulse response analysis. Empirical analyses state that credit expansion to small and medium enterprises made by formal financial market has a significant impact on the short-term trend of capital price of informal financial market. But the co-integration analysis shows that there doesn＇t exist a long-term balance relation between interest rate of informal financial market and the credit level of SMEs, so Wenzhou＇ s informal financial market should be understood based an integrated analytical framework. Under this framework, reactive- ness and autonomy of informal financial market should be mutually supplemented to provide an explanation of the booming informal financial market.

关 键 词：非正规金融 反应性 自主性 温州 

分 类 号：F832.39[经济管理—金融学]