山东省乙型肝炎、肝硬化及肝癌流行趋势分析  

Epidemiological trend of hepatitis B,liver cirrhosis and liver cancer during 1990-2007 in Shandong province,China

作　　者：亓文婷[1] 孙建东[1] 徐爱强[2] 张丽[2] 马吉祥[2] 郭晓雷[2] 颜丙玉[2] 樊庆莹[1] 杨赫[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计研究所,济南250012 [2]山东省疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《中国公共卫生》2009年第4期389-391,共3页Chinese Journal of Public Health

基　　金：山东省医药卫生科研项目(2009)

摘　　要：目的了解山东省1990～2007年乙肝、肝硬化和肝癌的流行状况及变化趋势,初步评价乙肝预防控制措施的效果,为今后防治决策制定提供参考。方法根据报告的乙肝发病资料和乙肝、肝硬化、肝癌死亡资料以及历年人口资料,利用发病率、死亡率、年龄别死亡率等指标对上述3种疾病进行流行趋势的分析,并建立简单线性回归模型进行统计分析。结果1990～2007年山东省共报告乙肝病例437094例,年均总发病率为27.32/10万,并呈上升趋势,而0～9岁年龄组的发病率呈显著下降趋势。乙肝和肝硬化调整死亡率下降趋势明显,两者合并死亡率由1990年的17.55/10万下降到2007年的4.01/10万。肝癌调整死亡率基本稳定(P=0.9998)。结论做好乙肝疫苗的免疫接种不仅可降低目标人群乙肝的发病,并将最终降低与此相关的肝硬化和肝癌的死亡率。Objective To analyze the epidemiological trend of hepatitis B,liver cirrhosis and liver cancer during 1990 to 2007 in Shandong province, and to evaluate the effectiveness of hepatitis B prevention and control measures, so as to provide the evidence for policy-making. Methods Based on the routine incidence data of hepatitis B ,mortality data of hepatitis B,liver cirrhosis ,liver cancer and demographic data, the incidence rate, mortality rate and age-specific mortality rate were calculated and analyzed with simple linear regression model. Results A total of 437094 cases of hepatitis B were reported during 1990 -2007 with an average yearly morbidity of 27. 32 per 100 000 population and a decreased trend for the 0-9 yearold children. At the same time , the adjusted morality rate for hepatitis B and liver cirrhosis showed a decreased tendency signifcandy and the combined mortality rate decreased from 17. 55/100 000 in 1990 to 4.01/100 000 in 2007. While there was a steady tendency for liver cancer（P = 0. 999 8 ）. Conclusion The good immunization work of hepatitis B vaccine can lower the incidence of hepatitis B for the target population and the mortality rates of related liver cirrhosis and liver cancer.

关 键 词：乙肝 肝硬化 肝癌 流行趋势 

分 类 号：R575[医药卫生—消化系统]