近45年5—9月阿勒泰地区强降水气候变化趋势与突变特征  

Characteristics of Climatic Change and Catastrophe of Severe Precipitation in Aletai From May to September in Recent 45 Years

作　　者：白松竹[1] 李春芳[1] 王磊[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆维吾尔自治区阿勒泰地区气象台,阿勒泰836500

出　　处：《暴雨灾害》2009年第1期84-87,共4页Torrential Rain and Disasters

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区气象局T213产品在阿勒泰夏季大降水(暴雨)机理的解释应用课题资助

摘　　要：利用1961—2005年5—9月阿勒泰地区六县一市7站逐日降水资料,对该地区强降水事件的气候变化趋势和突变特征进行分析。结果表明:近45年来,强降水量和强降水日数呈增加趋势,1981年是增加的突变点;强降水强度、极端降水量和日数的变化趋势不明显;间隔1～5d强降水日数呈增加趋势;1982年以来,5月和7月强降水发生频率显著增加,9月强降水发生频率锐减;强降水事件发生时间主要集中在7月份,1980年代以来,8月下旬也是强降水事件频发时段。According to the daily precipitation data at 7 observation sites in Aletai in May to September from 1961 to 2005, the climatic changes and catastrophe of strong precipitation events are analyzed. The resuhs show that the number of days of strong precipitation significantly increases in the recent 45 years, and 1981 is the mutation point. The change of the intensity of strong precipitation, the days and quantity of the extreme precipitation are not distinctness; the number of days of strong precipitation events during 5 days showed an upward trend. The frequency of heavy precipitation in May and July increased significantly, and reduced sharply in September since 1982. Strong precipitation events are mainly centralized in the July and the third ten days of August since 1980s.

关 键 词：强降水 气候变化 突变 

分 类 号：P426.614[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]