基于学习曲线的行业财务风险分析  

Profession Financial Risk Analysis Based on Learning Curve

作　　者：曾繁荣[1] 彭娜[1] 

机构地区：[1]桂林电子科技大学管理学院,广西桂林541004

出　　处：《系统工程》2009年第2期56-63,共8页Systems Engineering

基　　金：广西壮族自治区自然科学基金资助项目(桂科青0542038);财政部全国会计学术类领军人才培训项目

摘　　要：借助回归分析建立学习曲线方程,求出行业学习率,对学习率进行对比分析,判断学习能力的高低差异。借助主成分分析和回归分析筛选指标,基于学习曲线建立一个反映企业各项能力的指标体系,并将学习率差异对应于该体系中各项具体的财务指标。在具体指标分析中,以上市年数为因变量,以财务指标为自变量,求出回归方程,得出各指标对应的相关系数,着重关注相关系数较高的指标,对照财务指标计算公式挖掘财务指标水平的影响因素。将学习曲线应用于财务风险分析中,建立基于学习曲线财务风险分析模型(LCFRA),并将其应用于行业研究中,以激发目标行业的学习能力,力求对相关财务风险进行合理有效的防范与规避。This paper, through regression analysis, establishes Learning Curve equation, extracts the profession learning rate, and carries on a contrastive analysis of the Learning rate to judge the differences in learning capability. By means of the principal components analysis and the regression analysis to screen indexes, we construct an index system based on the Learning Curve reflecting each enterprise＇ s ability, and the Learning rate difference will correspond to each concrete financial index in this system. In specific analysis, we take the years of listing as a dependent variable, financial indexes as an independent variable, extract the solution of the regression equation, obtain various correlation coefficients corresponding to different indexes, highlight the indexes with high correlation coefficients, and compare the financial index formula to find the factors influencing the level of financial indexes. By applying the Learning Curve to financial risk analysis, we establish a financial risk analysis model based on the Learning Curve （LCFRA）, which is employed in the profession research to stimulate learning capability of target industries, so as to effectively prevent and avoid related financial risks.

关 键 词：学习曲线 行业研究 财务风险分析 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理]