湖北省卫生总费用的比较分析及ARIMA模型研究  

作　　者：何巧娜 张增长[2] 胡樱[2] 刘家元[3] 马荣娴[3] 宇传华[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国卫生信息学会秘书处,北京市100082 [2]武汉大学公共卫生学院武汉大学全球健康研究中心,武汉市430071 [3]湖北省卫生厅规财处,武汉市430071

出　　处：《中国卫生信息管理杂志》2011年第3期80-82,共3页Chinese Journal of Health Informatics and Management

摘　　要：目的为湖北省卫生部门制定相应的卫生政策提供基础数据依据,扩大湖北省医疗保障的覆盖面,促进社会卫生服务利用的公平性。方法采用筹资来源法对卫生总费用进行了核算;建立自回归移动平均混合模型(ARIMA模型)并对未来三年的湖北省卫生总费用进行了预测。结果湖北省的卫生总费用、人均TEH、及占GDP的比重从1999年的130.47亿元、219.60元、3.40%分别上升到2009年的609.38亿元、1065.34元和4.70%。建立的ARIMA模型为Yt=0.040+0.539Yt-1+0.461Yt-2+at。20102012年本省卫生总费用预测值分别为840.16亿元、1158.33亿元、1597.00亿元。结论湖北省应加大对卫生事业的投入;加强基层卫生机构的能力建设;完善卫生总费用筹资体制;促进卫生服务利用的公平性。Objective To provide a data base for Hubei Province government making health policies and expand Hubei Province health care coverage.Enhance social equity in health service utilization.Methods Take the special health account methods (the source method) to account the total health expenditure.Establish the ARIMA model;establish the ARIMA model and predict Hubei's total health expenditure from 2010 to 2012.Results There is an increasing trend of total health expenditure in Hubei Province,per capital health expenditure and the proportion of GDP increases from 13.047 billion yuan,219.60 yuan,3.40% in 1999 to 60.938 billion yuan,1065.34 yuan and 4.70% in 2009.Total expenditure on health in Hubei Province is forecasted to be 84.016 billion yuan,115.833 billion yuan,159.7 billion yuan from 2010 to 2012.Conclusion Hubei Province should increase investment to the public health.It is necessary to strength the capacity building of primary health facilities,improve the health financing system and improve social health service equity.

关 键 词：卫生总费用 国内生产总值 ARIMA模型 预测 

分 类 号：R197.1[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]