Evaluation of supply chain default risk based on fuzzy influence diagram  

基于模糊影响图的供应链违约风险评估(英文)

作　　者：马汉武[1] 马芹荣[1] 符国辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏大学工商管理学院

出　　处：《Journal of Southeast University(English Edition)》2007年第S1期111-117,共7页东南大学学报（英文版）

基　　金：The National Key Technology R&D Program of China during the 11th Five-Year Plan Period(No.2006BAH02A06)

摘　　要：After introducing the supply chain default risk and its causes,based on the literature review of the evaluation methods of supply chain risks,a new evaluation method called the fuzzy influence diagram which combines fuzzy sets with influence diagram theory and considers the interaction among risk factors is proposed.Furthermore,an evaluation model of the supply chain default risk is established based on the research of default risk evaluation and the fuzzy influence diagram.First,the model takes the loss of risk as a valuable node,risk factors as random nodes,drawing a risk analysis influence diagram.Then,three kinds of fuzzy sets are defined,including state fuzzy sets,probabilistic fuzzy sets and a relation fuzzy matrix.Finally,by using the fuzzy algorithm to evaluate nodes,the probability of risk occurrence and the degrees of risk loss are obtained.On the basis of the model,an instance application is used to prove its utility and effectiveness.针对供应链违约风险及其诱导因素,在供应链风险评估方法的综述基础上,综合应用模糊集与影响图理论,提出一种新的能够体现各个风险因素间的相互作用的供应链违约风险评估方法——模糊影响图方法.并进一步对违约风险评估展开研究,建立了基于模糊影响图的供应链违约风险评估模型.该模型首先将风险损失作为价值结点,风险因素作为随机结点,构建风险分析影响图,然后定义3种模糊集:状态模糊集、频率模糊集和关系模糊矩阵,最后应用模糊算法对图中结点进行评价,得到风险发生的概率和风险损失程度.通过实例应用证明了该模型的实用性与有效性.

关 键 词：supply chain management(SCM) risk management fuzzy influence diagram EVALUATION 

分 类 号：F274[经济管理—企业管理] F224[经济管理—国民经济]