华北地区强震复发的概率分布  

THE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF STRONG EARTHQUAK RECURRENCE IN NORTH CHINA AREA

作　　者：平建军[1] 胡新亮[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北省地震局

出　　处：《华北地震科学》1989年第3期71-77,共7页North China Earthquake Sciences

摘　　要：木文利用华北地区6级以上历史地震资料,通过贝叶斯(Bayes)公式的计算,给出了该地区未来强震发生的概率分布,可供地震监测预报人员参考。In this paer, the probability distribution of the future strong earthquake occurrence in North China aree is presented by using the historical carthquakes(M≥6) data in this area and through Bayes formula calculation, which can provide a reference for the people for earthquake monitoring and prediction.

关 键 词：强震活动 地震监测预报 华北地区 历史地震资料 概率分布 相关地震 发震时间 地震事件 后验概率 震例 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]