地震前兆的动力学特征——是否存在着地震前兆吸引子?  

DYNAMIC CHARACTERS OF SEISMIC PRECUSOR——DOES THERE EXIST A SEISMIC PRECUSER ATTR ACTOR?

作　　者：罗久里 韩渭宾 刘冬燕 彭涛 

机构地区：[1]四川大学化学系 [2]四川省地震局 [3]四川大学化学系物理化学专业(非平衡态热力学方向)

出　　处：《大自然探索》1989年第3期21-27,共7页Discovery of Nature

摘　　要：本文把孕震地块作为动力系统,用地应力、地磁强度、重力、地下水位以及水氡含量等宏观变量的观测值标志该发震系统的状态;采用时序数据法,对震前孕震地块是否已处于吸引子态这一敏感的问题进行了分析,为把非平衡态物理及动力系统数学引入地震科学作了初步探索。根据1976年松潘—平武地震的前兆观测数据的动力学分析,发现震前发震系统上若干有代表性的地区已处于混沌吸引子态。这意味着虽然震前宏观状态变量仍旧表现“混乱”地变化着,但实际上已沦入一个分维的状态不变集中,存在着深刻的规律性。It is suggested in this article that the seismic massif is d(?)t with as a dynamical system which can be characterized by its macroscopic observables such as intensity of terrestrial (?)tricity,intensity of terrestrial magnetism,earth stress, undergrand water level and content of water radon. Along the approach of reconstruction of the dynamics of complex systems from time series data the very important problem of "Does there exist a seismic precusor attractor"has seen discussed. It is meaningful to explore the way to introduce both equilibrium physics and dynamical system mathematics into seismic research.This paper identifies from time series data before the famous Sonpan—Pinwu grand earthquake 1976 that some of the typical regions on this seismic massif has already reached a state regime of chaotic attractor before occurrence of the earthquake. It means that although its macroscopic observables seems to change irregularly it is actually trapped in a fractal invariant set of states. implicated deeply regularity. This result is hopeful to provide some reference for the earthquake prediction.

关 键 词：地震前兆 吸引子 前兆观测 孕震 观测值 松潘 时序数据 地震类型 宏观变量 非平衡态 

分 类 号：N49[自然科学总论]