基于ARIMA模型的日本进出口珍珠预测:2008—2015  

Forecast of Japan Pearl's Export and Import Based on ARIMA Model:2008—2015

作　　者：易丽平[1] 张莉[1] 罗鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东海洋大学科技处,广东湛江524088

出　　处：《资源开发与市场》2009年第3期216-217,共2页Resource Development & Market

基　　金：广东省哲学社会科学规划资助项目部分内容(编号:0709006)

摘　　要：日本作为珍珠的生产和消费大国,其珍珠进出口的变化对国际珍珠市场产生巨大的影响,因此加强对日本珍珠贸易的预测研究有着十分重要的现实意义。通过对日本历年的珍珠贸易统计资料,运用EVIEWS 5.1软件建立ARIMA模型,预测日本未来的珍珠进出口贸易。As a big country of pearl production and consumption, the Japan pearl made a significant impact on international pearl market with change of Japan pearl import and export. So it was very important to study prediction of Japan pearl trade. Based on the historical data of the trade of Japan pearl,the forecasting model of ARIMA model was set up under the help of EVIEWS software,and the model was applied to forecast the trade of Japan pearl in the future.

关 键 词：ARIMA模型 日本珍珠 进出口 预测 

分 类 号：F753.130.6[经济管理—国际贸易]