广东地区未来十年强震危险性预测  

A STUDY ON THE FORECAST OF STRONG EARTHQUAKE RISK IN FUTURE TEN YEARS IN GUANGDONG PROVINCE

作　　者：魏柏林[1] 陈定国[1] 陈伟光[1] 林美[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东省地震局

出　　处：《华南地震》1998年第1期50-55,共6页South China Journal of Seismology

摘　　要：对广东省境内的地震活动时空强作了预测，认为１９９４年台湾海峡７３级地震不属于东南沿海地震带的地震，因此两个活动周期的分析仍然符合实际情况，目前仍处于剩余释放阶段，未来十年内不会有７级以上地震发生。又据三种方法的时间预测，北部湾地区未来十年内再次发生６级地震的可能性不大，但不排除小概率事件的发生。预测下一个活动幕发生６级地震的地点依次是：珠江口外（一级危险区）、湛江与珠江三角洲（二级危险区）、潮汕与肇庆（三级危险区）、阳江海外与梅（州）丰（顺）以及河源地区（四级危险区）。Predictions of time, space and strength of seismic activity to Guangdong province have been made in this paper.The results show that the earthquake of Taiwan Strait( M s7 3,1994) doesn't belong to the earthquake occurring in Southeast China coastal seismic zone.So the analysis to the two seismicity periods is still correspond with the reality and it is still in the residual release stage.There will not be earthquake with M s≥7 0 in future ten years. And in terms of three methods of time prediction,it is less likely that earthquakes with M s≥6 0 occur once again in ten years after the double-quake in Beibu gulf in 1994 and 1995. Despite all of this,the event with small probability can't be exclused. So we predict that the risk zones in which earthquakes M s≥6 0 will occurr in next seismic episode are possibly: Out Pearl River Estuary region(first class risk zone),Zhanjiang and Pearl River Delta region (second class risk zone), Qiao-san,Zhaoqing region (third class risk zone ), Out Yiangjiang sea, Meizhou,Fengshun and Heyuan region (fourth class risk zone).

关 键 词：广东地区 强震 危险性预测 长期预报 地震周期 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]