外资潜入及其对中国股市的冲击--基于1994～2007年实际数据的分析  

The Undercurrent of Foreign Capital Inflow and its Impact on China's Stock Market

作　　者：梅鹏军[1] 裴平[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学商学院 [2]国际金融管理研究所

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2009年第3期76-81,共6页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(编号:No.04BJL027)阶段性成果。

摘　　要："外资潜入",是指海外资本为获得高额收益,逃避资本管制和政策限制,通过非正常渠道进入中国大陆进行投机的资本流动。本文在对"热钱"的内涵进行辨析的基础上,提出"外资潜入"的概念,分析外资潜入的目的和渠道,并对1994～2007年外资潜入的规模进行测度,进而实证检验外资潜入对中国股市的冲击。研究发现:外资潜入规模较大、流动速度加快、反转性强;外资潜入与国内股票价格正相关,即外资潜入会推动国内股价上涨;当外资潜入出现反转时,则会引起国内股价下跌。＂The undercurrent of foreign capital inflow＂ is foreign capital inflow through illegal channel, aimed at high return by escaping of the capital control and policy restriction in China's Mainland. The thesis brings forward the concept of ＂the undercurrent of foreign capital inflow＂ based on differentiating the meaning of ＂hot money＂ , analyzes the objectives and the inflow channel of ＂The undercurrent of foreign capital inflow＂ ,and estimates the scale of it from 1994 to 2007. Then ,the thesis does empirical analysis on the impact on China stock market. The main conclusions are： The scale of ＂the undercurrent of foreign capital inflow＂ is big, the speed of its flowing is quick, and the reversibility is high. The scale of ＂the undercurrent of foreign capital inflow＂ is positively correlated with stock price. ＂The undercurrent of foreign capital inflow＂ can raise the price of stock .When ＂the undercurrent of foreign capital inflow＂ reverses, stock price will fall down correspondingly.

关 键 词：外资潜入 规模测度 中国股市 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]