应用指数曲线模式对热带气旋路径的模拟预报方法  

The Simulation and Forecast Method for Tropical Cyclone Path Using Exponential Curve Model

作　　者：晋鹏[1] 周雁翎[1] 李厚伟 周静 

机构地区：[1]海军南海舰队海洋水文气象中心,广东湛江524001 [2]肇庆市气象局,广东肇庆526040

出　　处：《广东气象》2009年第2期7-9,14,共4页Guangdong Meteorology

基　　金：国家科技支撑项目(2006BAB19B01)

摘　　要：应用非线性数理模型中指数曲线方法，对2000～2001年3个不同路径类型的热带气旋进行移动路径的模拟，并对结果进行了误差、登陆时间、地段以及转向点等分析，结果表明：热带气旋路径受许多确定和不确定因子影响，在方程拟合时非线性项起很大的作用，且拟合误差随七值的增大而增大，对路径复杂的热带气旋元法做出准确预报，但可以判断其转向趋势，仍不失为有效的模拟预报方法。A nonlinearity model of exponential curve fitting is used in this paper to simulate the paths of three different types of tropical cyclones from 2000 to 2001. The track errors, landing times, landing places, and turning points are investigated. The results indicate that tropical cyclone path is affected by quite a few certain or uncertain factors, among which, nonlinear item appoars to be significant. The simulation error rises as the value of exponential index K increases, which makes it difficult to predict the tropical cyclones with complicated tracks. But it still turns out to be an effectual simulating - forecast method for its capability to capture the tendency of track turning.

关 键 词：动力气象学 指数曲线数理模型 非线性项 热带气旋路径 

分 类 号：P43[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]