滇缅大震与长江巨洪的遥相关  

FAR CORRELATION BETWEEN LARGE EARTHQUAKE IN THE YUNNAN BURMA AREA AND SERIOUS FLOOD ALONG THE YANGTZE RIVER

作　　者：郭增建[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家地震局兰州地震研究所

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》1998年第1期72-77,共6页Journal of Natural Disasters

摘　　要：长江、珠江巨大洪水的预测对国计民生关系甚大。本文提出了滇缅地区７级以上大震发生后一年内长江和珠江有可能发生巨洪的预测指标。这一点和后来某些气象学家得到的青藏高原南部（９５°Ｅ以西）超前异常增温与江淮巨洪有关的结果是一致的，可以说这是相互验证。但这些气象学家未讨论增温的原因，我们的研究则包含这个问题的回答。另外在预测北方旱涝时也要考虑滇缅地区的大震发生与否。According to the statistics,there often are serious floods along the Yangtze River after a big earthquake (M≥7) occurred in the Yunnan Burma area with a delay interval from a few months to one year. Based on this far correlation,we successfully predicted twice serious floods in the low middle reach of the Yangtze River,which occurred in 1991 and in 1996. The absence of large flood along the Yangtze River in 1997 is also accordant with the fact that there was not any big earthquake (M≥7) in the Yunnan Burma area since July of last year. The far correlation mechanism is that the emission of heat gas from ground due to earthquake may strengthen the water vapour in the Yangtze River area carried from the Bengal Bay. This far correlation mechanism agrees to the conclusion obtained by some meteorologists.They concluded that the increace of temperatur in south part of the Tibet plateau in March has obvious effect on the large flood along the Yangtze River in summer in the same year.

关 键 词：洪水 地震现象 水气输送 滇缅地区 长江 遥相关 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学] P338[天文地球—固体地球物理学]