内蒙古阿拉善盟民航客运需求分析与预测  

Civil Aviation Passenger Transport Demand Analysis and Forecast in Alashan County

作　　者：张会云[1] 李航[1] 彭语冰[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学管理学院,天津300300

出　　处：《中国民航大学学报》2009年第2期44-47,51,共5页Journal of Civil Aviation University of China

基　　金：中国民航大学与内蒙古自治区发改委合作项目;中国民航大学科研启动基金(05qd09x)

摘　　要：阿拉善盟地形地貌复杂,陆路交通不便,计划建设民用机场,以拉动地区经济发展,因此,需要对阿盟航空运输需求进行预测。由于缺乏历史数据,提出横向对比建模分析方法,对阿盟未来的航空运输需求进行预测,模型可靠性已经过现有运营机场的数据验证,研究成果可为阿盟建设民用机场、开通航线的相关决策提供参考。Alashan county is the biggest area in Inner Mongolia Municipality, which is short of roads and railways. The government hopes to build a civil airport to push its economic development and the civil aviation transport demand must be forecasted. But there is not civil airport in Alashan county now, so that we cann＇t gain the history data about civil aviatiou passenger transport demand, so, this paper proposes a new method by comparative analysis with other city to forecast the demand, the validity of this model was demonstrated by some airports＇ data, this result can provide reference for Alashan county＇s government about building airport and air lines.

关 键 词：航空运输 客运需求 预测 

分 类 号：F272.1[经济管理—企业管理]