软件项目费用风险混合评估方法  

A Hybrid Evaluation Method of Software Project Cost Risk

作　　者：谢成钢[1,2] 曹文钊[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学,湖南长沙410075 [2]国防科技大学,湖南长沙410073 [3]上海贝尔阿尔卡特股份有限公司,上海201206

出　　处：《计算机仿真》2009年第4期304-307,343,共5页Computer Simulation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70272002)

摘　　要：在软件工程领域基于公式模型预测的结果往往并不比人的经验准确,然而基于经验的预测方法也存在不少问题。提出的软件项目费用风险评估方法基于专家知识经验和历史项目数据,综合利用功能点分析方法以统计或估算项目的大小,建立了由专家评估预测费用超出的BN模型,由历史数据得到费用超出与生产力之间的关系,从而计算计划项目的生产力,进而估计项目的计划费用,通过对项目当前生产力与计划生产力的比较,评估项目当前是否存在费用风险。方法与费用预测模型无关,费用预算和项目最终实际费用以相对应的理想项目费用为参照物,与在不确定性费用预算基础上进行费用风险分析评估的方法相比,具有较高的可靠性。Model predictions based on formula in the field of software engineering is often less accurate than human being＇s experience, while the prediction method based on experience also has many problems. This paper presents a risk assessment method of software project based on historical project data and expertise know how, and uses functional point analysis method to count or estimate the size of the project, establishes the BN model of project cost overrun assessed by expert, and gets relationship between cost overrun and productivity by the historical data. This method can calculate the productivity of project plan, and then estimate the cost of project plan. The comparison be- tween current and planed productivity of projects is used to estimate whether risk of cost exists. This method is independent from the cost forecasting model. The cost of the project budget and the final actual costs referring to the ideal cost of the project are more reliable than that of using cost risk analysis assessment based on uncertain cost estimate.

关 键 词：软件项目 费用风险 贝叶斯网络 混合评估方法 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]