基于云模型关联规则的企业转型战略风险预警  

Study on Risk Alert of Enterprise Industry Transition Strategy Based on Cloud Model Association Rules

作　　者：王德鲁[1] 宋学锋[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学管理学院,江苏徐州221116

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2009年第2期152-159,共8页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NECT-04-0485);中国矿业大学青年科研基金(2007A053)

摘　　要：针对评价指标数据的特点,构造了一种基于云模型的数值型关联规则挖掘算法,并将其运用于企业转型战略风险预警。首先运用云模型约简评价指标;然后,采用属性空间软划分方法对定量型属性的定义域进行划分,使定量型关联规则挖掘转换为定性关联规则挖掘,此基础上提取规则模版;最后采用有规则约束的Apriori算法挖掘云关联规则,并对检验样本风险等级进行判别。实证分析结果表明,与标准BP神经网络模型相比,该模型是一种更为有效和实用的战略风险预警工具。According to data characteristics of the evaluation index,the quantitative association rules mining algorithm is improved and applied to the risk alert of enterprise industry transition strategy based on cloud model.Firstly,evaluation variables are reduced through cloud model.And then,in order to transform quantitative association rules to qualitative ones,the definition fields of quantitative attributes are divided with an attributes space partition method,and the stencil-plate is extracted.Lastly,the association rules are mining to identify strategy risk using Apriori algorithm with rule restrictions.Positive analysis results show that in comparison with BP neural network the model is an efficient and practical risk alert tool.

关 键 词：云模型 关联规则 产业转型战略 风险预警 

分 类 号：F270[经济管理—企业管理]