极端天气事件导致基础设施破坏间接经济损失评估  

INDIRECT EFFECTS OF INFRASTRUCTURE DISRUPTIONS CAUSED BY EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS WITH APPLICATION OF THE INOPERABILITY INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL

作　　者：胡爱军[1,2,3] 李宁[1,2] 史培军[1,2] 郭海峰 赵晗萍[1,2] 尹新怀 

机构地区：[1]民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室 [2]北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,中国北京100875 [3]湖南省气象局,中国湖南长沙410007

出　　处：《经济地理》2009年第4期529-534,共6页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划课题(编号:2008BAK20B08);国家科技支撑计划课题(编号:2007BAC29B04)联合资助

摘　　要：极端天气事件造成的经济损失包括直接经济损失和间接经济损失。间接经济损失是衡量现代经济系统脆弱性的重要指标,也是灾后恢复重建的重要参考依据,加强间接经济损失评估具有十分重要的意义。以2008年中国南方低温雨雪冰冻灾害为例,应用非正常投入产出模型对灾害过程中电力和交通基础设施破坏造成的间接经济损失进行了评估。结果显示,电力、交通等基础设施破坏对经济系统其他产业生产造成严重影响,影响依据相互关联程度不同而存在差别,造成总的间接经济损失超过100多亿元。因此,极端天气事件风险分析和应急管理应该把间接经济损失评估纳入其中。非正常投入产出模型为经济系统脆弱性分析以及间接经济损失的估算提供了有力的工具。Economic loss caused by extreme weather events includes direct and indirect effects. Indirect loss estimates are Not only are important in identifying the vulnerability of economic system, but also more practical usefulness for improving recovery decisions. The Inoperability Input-Output Model （ⅡM） is a methodology that can estimate cascading indirect impacts resulted from interdependencies within the economic and infrastructure systems. This paper took the 2008 Large-Scale Snow Disaster in South China as a study, analysised the inoperability and indirect economic loss cause by power supply disturbance and transportation perturbation. The total indirect economic loss is about ten billion RMBs in Hunan province because of the inoperability of power and transportation. Finally, this paper puts forward a extreme events risk assessment and management framework that take interdependency analysis into account through application of IIM. The inoperability Input-Output Model can effiently and inexpensively compute the indirect economic impacts, which can provide some valuable references for emergency management of extreme events.

关 键 词：低温雨雪冰冻灾害 间接经济损失 故障投入产出模型 风险管理 湖南 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] F224.9[经济管理—国民经济]