城市轨道交通乘客路径选择模型及算法  

Passenger Flow Route Assignment Model and Algorithm for Urban Rail Transit Network

作　　者：刘剑锋[1,2] 孙福亮[2] 柏赟[1] 许娟[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学中国综合交通研究中心,北京100044 [2]北京交通发展研究中心,北京100055

出　　处：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2009年第2期81-86,共6页Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划子课题项目(2006BAJ18B04-08)

摘　　要：分析了影响城市轨道交通乘客路径选择的主要影响因素,建立了城市轨道交通路径选择的广义费用函数,并分析乘客在城市轨道交通网络中的路径选择行为.应用Logit模型对城市轨道交通网络的客流分配问题进行了理论建模,通过统计调查数据对模型和算法进行了有效性验证.通过问卷调查数据,采用极大似然估计方法,标定了模型中的参数,在有效路径搜索算法方面,提出了一种基于深度搜索优先和分支界定思想的有效路径搜索算法,以得出符合现实的有效路径集合.最后,在北京市轨道交通网络客流中,运用本文所提出的模型和算法估算了立水桥站到国贸站OD对之间各有效路径被选取的概率,并通过实测调查数据进行了验证,结果表明了本文所提出的模型和算法的有效性.This study focuses on the major factors influencing the passenger flow assignment in the Urban Rail Transit （URT） network. A generalized fare function is modeled for URT. It also takes full consideration of travelers＇ route choice behaviors in URT network. A Logit-based model is developed to emulate passenger flow route assignment, and the model is validated by computer simulation. According to the survey results, this study deter-mines the weighting coefficients in the proposed model by the Maximum Likelihood Estimation Algorithm. More-over, it proposes an effective-path searching method based on Depth Priority Searching and Branch ＆ Bound Algo- rithm. Taking Beijing URT network as an example, the study estimates the probability of selecting each effective-path between Lishuiqiao station and Guomao station, which is verified by real data. The proposed model and algo-rithm are proved to be effective.

关 键 词：城市轨道交通 客流 路径选择 OD矩阵 LOGIT模型 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]