灾害条件下运输中断引起的生产损失估算模型  

Estimations on Production Losses Due to Transportation Interruption with Natural Disasters

作　　者：王玉明[1] 毛保华[1] 关伟[1] 贾斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学城市交通复杂系统理论与技术教育部重点实验室,北京100044

出　　处：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2009年第2期134-140,共7页Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology

基　　金：973计划项目课题(2006CB705507);教育部创新团队项目(IRT0605)

摘　　要：自然灾害经常造成运输过程中断,其损失的评估是一项十分重要而复杂的工作.从灾害造成的运输中断时间出发,对时间价值的内涵进行了分析;将灾害引起的运输中断及其导致的生产价值损失时间分为两个波及区,即生产人员损失价值和库存中断造成的损失价值.通过引入资源时间价值概念,分析了灾害中断运输所造成的直接与间接经济损失内涵,建立了基于资源时间价值的运输线路中断后社会生产价值损失估算模型,并结合算例给出了损失计算方法.研究可以为运输企业计算灾害带来的自身直接经济损失以及运输中断后引起的社会间接经济损失提供一种定量分析与估算方法.It is difficult but important to estimate the indirect losses caused by transportation interruption during natural disasters. The paper discusses the meaning of the value of time based on the duration of transportation interruption during disasters. The production losses are analysed from two aspects： the loss value of production staff and the loss ereated by repertory interruption. The contents of direct and indirect losses are also analyzed by introducing the resource value of time. The paper develops an estimation model on production losses due to transportation interruption with natural disasters, and further documents its computational method by practical examples. The paper provides a potential quanti- tative estimation method both for determining the direct economic losses of transportation enterprises due to disasters and the social indirect losses caused by transportation interruption during natural disasters.

关 键 词：自然灾害 资源时间价值 运输中断 生产损失 经济评估 

分 类 号：U298[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]