基于拟正交试验与支持向量机的设计时间预测方法研究  

Research on Forecast Method of Product Design Time Based on Quasi-orthogonal Experiment and Support Vector Machines

作　　者：郭波[1] 张晓冬[1] 段爽月[1] 杨杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆大学,重庆400030

出　　处：《中国机械工程》2009年第9期1087-1091,1096,共6页China Mechanical Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70501036)

摘　　要：针对产品设计时间预测问题,提出了一种基于拟正交试验与支持向量机的设计时间预测新方法,将产品特征和设计者的设计能力作为影响因素进行综合考察。以变速箱传动轴的设计时间预测为例,对影响因素的定量化评价、试验步骤以及预测方法进行了详细说明。应用实例表明,该方法能较为全面地反映产品设计任务中各因素以及设计者能力对设计时间的影响,避免历史数据中的不确定因素所带来的干扰,有效解决预测模型选择、非线性和维数灾难等问题。This paper proposed a forecast method of product design time based on quasi--orthogo- nal experiment and support vector machines. Different from conventional practices, design abilities were included in influencing factors as well as product features. Taking the time forecast of the design of TSGB as a study case, the quantitive evaluation of influence factors was shown, and the experimen- tal steps and forecast method were concretely demonstrated. The outcome of the case indicates that this method can comprehensively reflect the effect of designer＇s ability and product factors on design time, prevent the forecast outcomes from unexpected factors existed in historical data resulting in in- terfering, and effectively solve the problems such as forecast model choosing, nonlinear regression and dimension disaster etc.

关 键 词：产品设计时间 拟正交试验 支持向量机 回归分析 

分 类 号：O212.6[理学—概率论与数理统计] TH122[理学—数学]