科技企业孵化器发展的系统动力学研究  

SD Modeling of the Development of High-Tech Business Incubators

作　　者：李振华[1] 赵黎明[1] 石泉[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理学院,天津300072 [2]济宁高新区创业中心,山东济宁272023

出　　处：《科学学与科学技术管理》2009年第5期31-35,共5页Science of Science and Management of S.& T.

基　　金：教育部科学技术研究重点项目“高新技术产业化研究”(99127)

摘　　要：科技企业孵化器是一个涉及到社会、经济、科技、人才、资源、信息等各个方面的复杂系统,是促进我国科技型中小企业快速发展和推动自主创新的重要载体。运用系统动力学理论,采取流率基本入树法,进行了科技企业孵化器发展的系统基模分析,建立了科技企业孵化器发展的系统动力学(SD)模型,并以山东济宁科技企业孵化器为例进行了仿真实证分析。结果表明,未来10年山东济宁科技企业孵化器的发展仍然存在着很大空间。加大孵化器的投资吸引能力和政府税收返还比例,会促进工业总产值大幅度增加;加大工业总产值影响因子,会促进其规模发展和建设速度的加快。The high-tech business incubator（HTBI） is a complex system which involves various aspects such as soci is an ety im , economy, science and technology, persons with ability, resources, information and so on. The HTIB portant carrier that can stimulate the rapid development of high-tech small and medium sized enterprises and stimulates self-innovation in our country. In this paper, the SD model of HTBI is built with the theory of system dynamics（SD） and the rate variable fundamental in-tree method. The system archetype of the SD model is analyzed and simulation is done with the case of Jining HTBI. The results indicate that, in the future 10 years Jining HTBI still has prodigious development room. The increase of return proportion of revenue and the increase of the ability of invest attraction will all stimulate the increase of the industry production value effectively, while the increase of the effect coefficient of the industry production value to incubate area will accelerate the development of Jining HTBI＇ scale and its construction speed.

关 键 词：科技企业孵化器 系统动力学 系统基模 仿真 济宁 

分 类 号：F271[经济管理—企业管理]