基于GRAPES模式模拟强台风“珍珠”数值分析  

GRAPES-Based Numerical Experiment on Typhoon Chanchu

作　　者：张兵[1] 薛宇峰[1] 管耀红[1] 范伶俐[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东海洋大学,湛江524088

出　　处：《气象科技》2009年第2期135-140,共6页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金："GRAPES模式在数值天气预报教学中的应用研究"课题资助

摘　　要：以T213L30模式产品及常规观测资料为基础,采用GRAPES数值预报模式对强台风"珍珠"(0601)的演变过程进行了数值模拟。结果表明,GRAPES模式对"珍珠"的加强、移动路径和产生的暴雨都有较好的预报能力,尤其是对"珍珠"南海西行突然顺转90°折向北行异常路径的预报较为理想,且登陆点预报准确。通过对形势场(500hPa高度场、海平面气压场)、物理量场(温度、涡度、垂直速度、散度)、流场的数值模拟分析,认为"珍珠"路径的转折变化与副热带高压的东撤南退、冷空气的变化、越赤道气流的变化、台风的非对称结构有关。Based observation data on the T213 numerical prediction products and the the development and movement of the typhoon Chanehu routine radiosonde and surface （No. 0601） are studied by means of the GRAPES-based numerical experiment. The results show that the GRAPES model has a good ability to forecast the intensification, moving track, and heavy rainfall caused by Chanchu. This model simulated out well the landing spot and especially the track of Chanchu, which made an abrupt clockwise turning from west to north in the central South China Sea. By analysis of the 500 hPa geopotential height and the sea-level pressure fields, as well as temperature, vertical motion and vortex, it is showed that the abrupt turning of the track was related to the adjustment of the general circulation, the movement of cold air, and its own dissymmetricat structure

关 键 词：GRAPES模式 台风 数值模拟 移动路径 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] U698.91[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]