长江、黄河流域洪涝灾害的可公度性分析及灾害趋势研究  

Flood waterlogging disaster of commensurability analyse in Yangtse and Yellow River drainage area and disaster tendency study

作　　者：王娟[1] 张曙[1] 赵晖[1] 

机构地区：[1]云南大学工程技术研究院,云南昆明650091

出　　处：《云南大学学报（自然科学版）》2009年第3期267-273,共7页Journal of Yunnan University(Natural Sciences Edition)

基　　金：云南省自然科学基金资助项目(2007C017M)

摘　　要：长江、黄河流域是我国洪涝灾害比较严重的区域.在对长江、黄河流域洪涝灾害数据分析的基础上,应用信息预测理论的可公度性,分别对长江、黄河流域未来可能发生洪涝灾害的趋势进行了研究.得出长江流域2008,2013年,黄河流域2012年,洪涝灾害的信息较强,极有可能发生较大洪涝灾害.希望能为防洪减灾提供重要的参考资料.Yangtse and Yellow River drainage area are prone to form serious flood waterlogging disaster. According to the data analysis of flood waterlogging disaster in Yangtse and Yellow River drainage area, by using commensurability of informative forecast theory,the tendency of the next flood waterlogging disaster is predicted. The conclusions indicate that the strong disaster of biggish flood waterlogging disaster will probably occur in 2008 and 2013 at Yangtse River and in 2012 at Yellow River. These messages are expected to offer an important referenced datum for the purpose of disaster prevention and reduction.

关 键 词：洪涝灾害 可公度性 长江流域 黄河流域 灾害预测分析 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]