非财务因素变化对企业财务危机影响的实证分析  

Exemplified research about the effect of non-financial factors' changes on enterprise's financial crises

作　　者：袁康来[1] 周燕[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南农业大学商学院,湖南长沙410128

出　　处：《科技与管理》2009年第3期94-97,100,共5页Science-Technology and Management

基　　金：湖南省社会科学基金项目(06YB45);湖南省教育厅基金项目(08C407)

摘　　要：以深、沪两市2006～2007年被认定为财务状况异常的42家ST公司为财务危机样本,另选取与其一一对应的42家财务健康公司相配对,对股权结构、公司治理和审计意见等3个方面的8个非财务变量进行描述性统计,并运用logistic回归模型分别检验其对财务危机的解释力。研究结果表明,审计师意见的预警效果最好,年度股东大会出席率的影响次之,其他非财务变量均不显著。This paper collects samples of 42 financial distressed companies in Shenzhen and Shanghai which suffer from financial situation abnormality in 2006-2007 and matches them with 42 good financial situation companies. Then this paper chooses 8 non-financial factors of ownership structure,corporate governance and audit opinions to do descriptive statistics, and tests whether the 8 non-financial factors affect probability of financial distress by using the logistic regression models. The result shows that audit opinions have the best explanation and prediction abilities. The attendance rate of annual shareholder meeting comes second, and other non-financial variables are not insignificant.

关 键 词：财务危机 非财务变量 描述性统计 LOGISTIC回归模型 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理]