六安市水库水质评价与总氮·总磷预测研究  

Research on Water Quality Assessment of the Reservoirs,Total Nitrogen and Total Phosphorus Forecast in Luan City

作　　者：汪万芬[1] 王敏[1] 刘昌利[2] 

机构地区：[1]皖西学院城市建设与环境系,安徽六安237012 [2]皖西学院化学与生命科学系,安徽六安237012

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2009年第14期6594-6596,共3页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：安徽省教育厅自然科学基金一般项目(KJ2009B293Z);安徽省教育厅自然科学研究重点项目(KJ2008A138);安徽省六安市定向委托皖西学院市级研究项目(2008LW025)

摘　　要：利用安徽省六安市5大水库监测资料，采用污染分担率法选取评价因子，应用改进的模糊综合评价方法——最小隶属度法进行水质评价，并建立GM（1，1）灰色模型对水库未来总氮、总磷浓度进行了预测。结果表明：2007年，水库水质较好，均满足国家Ⅱ类水标准；2002-2012年，梅山水库总氮浓度呈下降趋势，而磨子潭、龙河口、响洪甸、佛子岭水库总氮浓度自2003年后呈显著上升趋势；佛子岭和磨子潭水库总磷浓度呈显著上升趋势；而龙河口、响洪甸、梅山水库总磷浓度呈现下降趋势。Water quality was assessed by adopting improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, i.e. minimum membership method, according to the monitoring data of five major reservoirs in Luan City. And the evaluation factors were determined by share rate of pollution method. The GM （1,1） grey model was established to forecast total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentration in the future. The results indicated that the quality of the five reservoirs in Luan City reached the grade Ⅱ of national water standard in 2007. Total nitrogen concentration of Meishan Reservoir showed the downtrend in 2002 -2012 while that of Mozitan, Longhekou, Xianghongdian, Fuziling Reservoir showed the significant uptrend since 2003. Total phosphorus concentration of Fuziling and Mozitan Reservoir showed the uptrend while that of Longhekou, Xianghongdian, Meishan Reservoir showed the downtrend.

关 键 词：水质评价 总氮、总磷预测 最小隶属度法 GM(1 1)模型 

分 类 号：X52[环境科学与工程—环境工程]