非线性地震流函数在强震概率增长空间域预测中的应用研究  

Study of Non linear Earthquake Flow Functions and Their Application to the Space Increased Probability (SIP) of Strong Earthquake

作　　者：王晓青[1] 黄德瑜[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家地震局分析预报中心

出　　处：《中国地震》1998年第1期31-39,共9页Earthquake Research in China

基　　金：地震科学联合基金会

摘　　要：在ＳＩＰ算法的基础上，确立了地震流函数的定义方法和异常判别准则，定义了９个非线性地震流函数。通过对中国东部近期７次６级以上强震的ＳＩＰ回溯性研究表明，７次强震中的６次落入ＳＩＰ预测空间域内，有震报准率为８６％，ＳＩＰ预测警戒空间域为３２％，Ｒ值评分为０５４，证明非线性地震流函数用于中期地震预测具有较好的前景。A definition and anomaly discriminant criteria of earthquake flow function are introduced in the paper based on the algorithm of Space Increased Probability (SIP). Nine earthquake flow functions are defined by the method. The backtracking tests applying the SIP algorithm with the non linear earthquake flow functions to 7 earthquakes with magnitude greater than 6 occurred during 1975 ～1989 in East Chinese Mainland depict that 6 in 7 strong earthquakes (86%) located in the SIP areas, and the SIP covered about 32% of the total research time space domain. These suggest that the R value, a effective scale for earthquake prediction, is 54% and may imply that the non linear earthquake flow functions introduced in the paper can be applied to the medium term forecast research.

关 键 词：非线性 地震流函数 强震 概率增长 预测空间域 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]