南通地区月降水量时间序列分析  

Time Series Analysis of Monthly Precipitation in Nantong Region

作　　者：李可柏[1] 陈森发[1] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学经济管理学院,南京210096

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2009年第3期555-565,共11页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

摘　　要：根据南通地区1989年-2005年月降水量数据,在统计检验其平稳性、纯随机性的基础上,结合谱分析,建立该地区具有季节效应的疏系数ARIMA月降水量时间序列模型,对模型作了拟合预测检验.研究表明,多个模型的联合使用比单一模型更利于准确拟合预测.On the basis of statistical test for stationarity and pure randomness of monthly precipitation data in Nantong region from 1989 to 2005, And combined with spectral analysis, a spare coefficient with seasonal effect ARIMA monthly precipitation time series model in the region was established. The models fitting and predicting test shows that multiple models united use＇is better beneficial to accurate fit and forecast than a single model.

关 键 词：时间序列 谱分析 周期图 ARIMA模型 降水量 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]