应用灰色模型预测肠道传染病发病趋势  

Application of grey model to forecast incidence trend of intestinal infectious diseases

作　　者：胡连鑫[1] 陈燕燕[1] 李杰[1] 杜渐[1] 赵蓓玲[1] 宋姝娟[1] 余志涛[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江省杭州市疾病预防控制中心,浙江杭州310006

出　　处：《疾病监测》2009年第2期135-136,共2页Disease Surveillance

摘　　要：目的预测杭州经济技术开发区未来几年肠道传染病发病趋势。方法利用肠道传染病疫情资料建立灰色模型。结果求得杭州经济技术开发区肠道传染病发病率(/10万)的灰色预测模型为:Y(t+1)=-28723.45e-0.0018t+28849.28。拟合检验显示本模型拟合精度合格(C<0.50,p>0.95),精度等级为二级,能够较好地预测肠道传染病发病率的中长期趋势。结论未来几年开发区肠道传染病发病率呈缓慢下降趋势。Objective To forecast the incidence trend of intestinal infectious diseases in Hangzhou Economic and Technology Development Zone （HEDZ）, and provide the references for the government. Methods Based on the incidence data of intestinal infectious diseases in HEDZ from 2001 to 2007, the grey systemic Gm （ 1, 1 ） forecast model was established. Results The grey systemic forecast model was Y（ t ＋ 1 ） = - 28 723.45e-0.0018 t ＋ 28 849.28. The goodness-of-fit test indicated that the precision （degree 2） was qualified （C 〈 0.50 ,p 〉 0.95 ） and the grey model was capable of forecasting mid or long-term incidence trend of intestinal infectious diseases. Conclusion The results indicated that the incidence of intestinal infectious diseases in HEDZ might decline gradually in the near future years.

关 键 词：灰色模型 肠道传染病 趋势 

分 类 号：R574[医药卫生—消化系统] R181.3[医药卫生—内科学]