均生函数模型在高原汛期降水预报中的应用  

SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING ANALYSIS FORA THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING BEIJINGCAPITAL INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

作　　者：解明恩[1,2,3] 单巴次仁 张万诚[1,2,3] 

机构地区：[1]云南省气象台 [2]西藏林芝地区气象台 [3]云南省红河州气象局

出　　处：《高原气象》1998年第2期190-197,共8页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：国家"九五"重中之重科技攻关项目

摘　　要：以均生函数为基函数，建立了正交化、主成分和最优子集回归三类预测模型。对云南昆明、滇中（包括昆明、玉溪和楚雄）及西藏林芝的汛期（６～８月）降水进行了模拟和预测，其拟合效果，特别是对极值的拟合十分理想。结果表明：在高原地区，均生函数模型预报降水具有较高的精度，拟合报准率和实际报准率分别为９７％～１００％和６０％～８０％，且具有多步预测能力。The images of GMS and the data of lightning positioning system were used to analyze the thunderstorms which affected Beijing Capital International Airport(BCIA) on August 2, 1994. During the thunderstorm process, there were three mesoscale convective systems(MCSs) developed and affecting BCIA about 5 hours. The analyses show that the position, frequency and polarity of lightning are related to the phases of convective system development. Therefore, the data of the lightning positioning system are an available tool to the nowcasting of MCSs in addition to the hourly images of GMS.

关 键 词：均生函数模型 正交化 最优子集 降水预测 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]