半干旱区社会-生态系统未来情景分析--以甘肃省榆中县北部山区为例  

Future scenarios analysis of social-ecological system in semiarid areas of Northwest China:A case study of northern highlands in Yuzhong County of Gansu Province

作　　者：王俊[1,2] 张向龙[1] 杨新军[1] 刘文兆[2] 汪兴玉[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北大学城市与资源学系,西安710127 [2]中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《生态学杂志》2009年第6期1143-1148,共6页Chinese Journal of Ecology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(30500077);中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX2-YW-424-1);陕西自然科学基础研究计划资助项目(2006D02)

摘　　要：以甘肃省榆中县北部山区为例,运用情景分析法对半干旱区社会-生态系统未来情景进行了分析。在相关利益主体情景访谈的基础上,确定了干旱扰动下的社会-生态系统未来变化的情景主题,通过系统驱动力分析确定了情景逻辑空间,选取了表征社会-生态系统未来发展的关键因素和关键事件,运用交叉影响分析计算出由关键事件组合的情景概率。结果表明,概率最大的3种情景内涵从属于关键驱动力所确定的情景逻辑空间,并由此展开了榆中北部山区社会-生态系统在2020年的3个发展情景,提出了系统向理想情景发展的决策建议。With the northern highlands in Yuzhong County of Gansu Province as a case, the fu- ture scenarios of the social-ecological system in semiarid areas of Northwest China were analyzed by the method of scenario analysis. On the basis of in situ interviews with farmers, government officials, and academic experts, the scenario logistic framework were identified by analyzing the driving forces to the system. The key factors and key events representing the system＇ s future were selected, and the future scenarios and their probabilities were constructed and calculated by using cross-impact analysis. Three scenarios of the social-ecological system with the maximum probability were congruent with the logical framework, and some decision-making suggestions for the ideal scenarios development of the social-ecological system in the semiarid areas in 2020 were put forward.

关 键 词：情景分析 社会一生态系统 干旱 榆中县北部山区 交叉影响分析 

分 类 号：X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学]