环境风险评价的不确定性问题处理方法进展  

Advances of the Strategies for Addressing Uncertainty in Environmental Risk Assessment

作　　者：许海梁[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学环境科学与工程学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《环境科学与管理》2009年第5期154-157,共4页Environmental Science and Management

摘　　要：环境风险分析是环境管理和决策的基础。由于环境数据相对比较模糊并且不够精确,用这类数据进行的相关分析和研究必定存在着偏差。从本质上说,风险分析的不确定性有两个原因,随机性和不完全性。目前解决不确定性的方法主要基于概率理论和模糊集理论。概率理论使用概率密度函数来描述环境参数中的随机变量。模糊集理论使用隶属函数和If——Then语句来表述环境问题的模糊性。目前相关研究主要集中于两种方法的结合。本文就各方法在不同环境介质风险评价中的应用进行了综述分析。Environmental risk assessment is the basis of environmental management and policy issue process. Due to the vagueness and impreciseness of most environmental data, uncertainty tended to occur in the analysis and research involved with these kind of data. Uncertainty in risk assessment may have two origins that are randomness and incompleteness. And there are two main solutions to these uncertainties at present namely probability theory and fuzzy set theory. Probability functions were used to describe the random variability of environmental parameters in the probability theory, while membership functions and linguistic parameters were used to express the vagueness of environmental issues in the fuzzy set theory. The combination of these two theories was one of the main topics of present researches. This paper discussed the methods to deal with the uncertainties in the envi- ronmental field and reviewed the examples of probabilistie and fuzzy set approaches applied to environmental risk assessment.

关 键 词：环境风险评价 模糊集理论 概率论 不确定性 

分 类 号：X820.4[环境科学与工程—环境工程]