我国入境旅游预测:基于ARFIMA模型的研究  

An Empirical Study on Inbound Tourism Demand Forecast Based on ARFIMA Model

作　　者：翁钢民[1] 郑竹叶[1] 刘洋[1] 

机构地区：[1]燕山大学经济管理学院,河北秦皇岛066004

出　　处：《商业研究》2009年第6期1-4,共4页Commercial Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金;项目编号:05KBS018;河北省社会科学基金项目;项目编号:HB07BYJ023

摘　　要：旅游需求预测是旅游规划、开发与管理的基础和前提。将分整自回归移动平均模型(ARFI-MA)应用在旅游需求预测中,采用我国月度入境旅游人数建立ARFIMA模型,并依据RMSE,MAE和MAPE三个标准,将ARFIMA与AR IMA,SAR IMA模型的预测精度进行比较。结果表明ARFIMA模型的精度最高,在旅游需求预测中有较强的实用性。Tourist demand forecast is the basis and precondition of tourism planning, development and management. The primary aim of this paper is to incorporate ARFIMA into tourism forecasting, and to compare the accuracy of forecasts with SARIMA by RMSE, MAE and MAPE. The models are estimated by using the volume of monthly international tourist arrivals in China. The results show that ARFIMA model has more accuracy and can be used in tourism forecast.

关 键 词：ARFIMA模型 入境旅游需求 旅游市场 预测 

分 类 号：F590.8[经济管理—旅游管理]