人民币汇率波动的微观效应——基于制造业上市公司财务数据的分析  

The Micro-effect of RMB Exchange Fluctuation:Analysis Based on the Financial Data of Manufacturing Listed Companies

作　　者：谭本艳[1] 周先平[2] 

机构地区：[1]湖北大学商学院,湖北武汉430062 [2]中南财经政法大学金融学院,湖北武汉430000

出　　处：《财贸研究》2009年第3期101-107,共7页Finance and Trade Research

基　　金：湖北省教育厅2008年青年项目(编号:100-094406)

摘　　要：根据我国522家制造业上市企业2001—2007年的财务数据,采用动态面板数据模型分析人民币汇率波动对企业融资能力的影响。研究结果表明:在企业存在货币错配的情况下,当期和滞后1期的人民币汇率波动对企业短期信贷能力和总信贷能力有显著的正相关效应,且滞后1期的效应更为明显,但对长期信贷能力的影响不明显。由于我国企业存在大量的债务型货币错配,人民币有效汇率的贬值给我国企业的融资能力带来了负面影响。Based on the financial data of 522 manufacturing listed enterprises from 2001 to 2007, this paper builds a dynamic panel data model to analyze the micro-effect on the enterprises＇capacity for financing caused by the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate. According to the conclusion, under the existence of enterprises＇ currency mismatch, the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate of same year and of one-year lag has significant positive correlation effect on enterprises＇ short-term credit ability and total credit ability, and the effect of one-year lag is more obvious. But the influence on enterprises＇long-term credit ability is not signif- icant yet. As there is large amount of currency mismatch on debt, the depreciation of RMB effective exchange rate brings negative influence on home enterprises＇ capacity for financing.

关 键 词：人民币汇率 货币错配 资产负债表效应 动态面板数据 系统广义矩 

分 类 号：F275.2[经济管理—企业管理]